Rankings Through January 9, 2012 & Post
Tuesday, January 10, 2012 at 8:57AM Click here for full rankings.
Click here for an explanation of the model.
Don’t Get Upset
Because we’re a full-service outfit, we like to draw from a variety of sources to inform and entertain. And while most of our name-dropping involves individuals directly involved in the basketball world, it’s important not to be one-dimensional.
That’s why we’re going to go Mr. Rogers on you for this week’s post. So throw a shoe in the air, zip up your cardigan and come with us to the Neighborhood of Make-Believe, where all of you are Division I basketball coaches.
You’ve spent nearly 12 weeks preparing your team for the all-important conference season—four weeks of running suicides and four-corner drills, and eight weeks honing your offensive sets and defensive skills against any Tom, Dick and Monmouth willing to come to your gym. In nonconference play, you rolled when you should and learned from your sporadic struggles. Confidence is as high as your points per game average, and the elements are in place for a successful 2012.
Then conference play begins, and like Jessica Alba’s or Paul Walker’s acting coach, you discover all your time and energy was for nothing.
Three basketball coaches had their “Into the Blue” moment last Saturday as Connecticut, Louisville and Florida—all residents of the top 15 in both major polls—lost league games in upset fashion to arguably inferior opponents.
That’s not to cast aspersions on Rutgers, Notre Dame and Tennessee. But with a combined 20 losses to the likes of Illinois State, the College of Charleston and Austin Peay, it would have been easier to imagine a rotating museum curated by a cranky, red-nosed antagonist than an upset victory by any of that trio.
Yet – before you could say “Lady Elaine Fairchilde” – all three sent their conference foes packing with help from above-average defensive efforts.
In the case of Tennessee and Rutgers, the linchpin was effective field-goal percentage. The former held Florida more than 15 percentage points under its season average, while the latter kept Connecticut nearly 13 percentage points below its average. And that’s assuming either team could actually keep a handle on the ball. The Gators’ turnover percentage was 7 percentage points above average, while the Huskies saw a 9.3% increase over their season average.
For Notre Dame-Louisville, the numbers weren’t as one-sided, which you would expect from a double-overtime affair. But despite that 10 extra minutes of game time, the Fighting Irish were able to hang on to the ball at a slightly higher rate than usual (which you better do when you shoot 31.7% from the field), as the Cardinals’ normally disruptive defense finished the game with a turnover percentage almost 10 points south of its season average.
Ultimately, what these three games revealed is that when you force an opponent to cough up the ball in the midst of a crummy shooting night, you can overcome even the longest odds, making for a beautiful day in the neighborhood.
Our Game of the Week
Baylor (MCBR #8, AP #4) vs. Kansas State (MCBR #19, AP #15)
7 p.m. (Central Time) Tuesday, Jan. 10
Fred Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, KS
The ranks of the undefeated are down to three: Syracuse, Murray State and Baylor. The Bears face the biggest threat of the trio this week in the form of Kansas State (12-2, 1-1 Big 12). Just as they have all season, the host Wildcats are going to be able to throw a lot of bodies at Baylor (15-0, 2-0) on Tuesday. Eight players average more than 18 minutes per game, and the scoring effort is balanced among Rodney McGruder (13.2 ppg) and Will Spradling (11.5 ppg) in the backcourt, and Jamar Samuels (11.4 ppg) and Thomas Gipson (9.6 ppg) up front.
Baylor boasts a similarly equitable attack, with five players averaging double figures, led by big men Percy Jones III (13 ppg), Quincy Acy (12.1 ppg) and Quincy Miller (11.2 ppg). And the Bears are more accurate than the Wildcats from inside and outside the three-point arc, as well as from the free-throw line. But with the differences between the teams fairly negligible, we’re counting on home-court advantage to be the deciding factor as we try to improve upon our season-best prognostication streak of one game with a 68-66 win for Kansas State.
Reader Comments (3)
The top 15 is starting to shape up like I expected it to, though I'm still a big fan of having St. Mary's, UNLV and New Mexico in that bracket...quality teams. I am sad to see the Badgers and Teach Me How To Golden Eagles have been dropping like flies, something I expected from Marquette when they faced real competition, but not so much from the Badgers. The game of the week should go in favor of Baylor, they have to future NBA players in their frontcourt and K-State has not recruited the same talent as they have in the past. Murray State is still one of the few undefeated teams this year and rumor has it, Shaka is leaving VCU to guide them for a deep run come tourney time, but that's only speculation at this point. Another fine written article with humor and vast knowledge, keep up the good work and I look forward to reading more next week!
Thank you for the comments Billy. Always nice to get feedback. Marquette facing real competition?? The Badgers aren't real competition??
I am curious as to why the rankings model did not incorporate any hypermathematical logarithmic trigonometry. This is probably why Marist is so low.