Rankings Through January 16, 2012 & Blog Post
Tuesday, January 17, 2012 at 5:43AM Click here for full rankings.
Click here for an explanation of the model.
If It Wasn’t for Bad Luck …
Not everything goes as planned. Just ask the organizers of Woodstock 1999. Or Chris Gaines. Or anyone involved with “The Adventures of Pluto Nash.” Although in the aforementioned cases, disaster is easier to expect when you give candles and kindling to price-gouged concertgoers or are estimating the movie-going public’s hunger to see the story of a nightclub owner on the moon.
College basketball teams expect to have similar instances of misfortune occur during the season, but nobody anticipates suffering through an extended period of one misfortune after another – not even Eddie Murphy. And certainly not the teams we’ve identified as the unluckiest of the season thus far.
The Snake-bit Six run the gamut from treading on the outskirts of the AP Top 25 (Wisconsin) to treading on the outskirts of obscurity (everyone else). We identified them by examining the games they were projected to win but didn’t, and then finding the difference between their projected winning percentage and their actual winning percentage. Based on that, the unluckiest team in the country is the Delaware State Hornets.
Although they have plenty of company, these down-on-their-luck denizens of Dover set themselves apart with several unanticipated shots to the chops, including a pair of particularly mortifying losses to Howard and the University of Maryland-Eastern Shore. In the latter instance, the Hornets had a 94.04% probability of winning—only slightly lower than if they were playing DeVry University. But with a 63-60 overtime home loss, Delaware State absorbed the latest of its three unlikely defeats.
Anyone who read last week’s treatise on upset specials should be familiar with the Hornets’ path to disappointment: an effective field goal percentage well below their season average and an offensive turnover percentage well above average. Although that’s not exactly foreign territory for a team ranked 263rd or worse in every major offensive category.
While blocking out dates for a tournament trip in mid-March would’ve been more presumptuous than Mr. Murphy setting aside Oscar weekend after wrapping “Norbit,” that doesn’t mean Delaware State doesn’t have the right to feel a little down about a season that’s contained more rabbit pellets than rabbit’s feet.
Our Game of the Week
Missouri (MCBR #7, AP #5) at Baylor (MCBR #3, AP #3)
1 p.m. (Central Time) Saturday, Jan. 21
Ferrell Center, Waco, TX
After defying our prediction last week with a win over Kansas State, Baylor (17-1, 4-1 Big 12) and its supremely balanced approach will try to fend off one of the highest-scoring teams in the country this Saturday in Waco.
The Tigers (17-1, 4-1 Big 12) have the fourth-ranked offense in the country at 83.9 points per game, and they’re not doing it with volume. Their field-goal percentage is second in the nation at 51.2%, and senior forward Ricardo Ratliffe is leading that effort, connecting on a staggering 77.4% of his attempts. He’s also one of four players with a scoring average in the double figures for Missouri, which had perfection snatched away from it by Kansas State on Jan. 7.
Apparently, the Sunflower State has a penchant for unseating the unbeaten. Kansas did the same to Baylor on Monday, leaving the Bears to try and salvage a split against top-10 teams this week. It looks like they will do it, as our numbers predict Baylor winning a close one at home 71 – 67.
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