Rankings Through January 23, 2012 & Blog Post

 Click here for full rankings.

 Click here for an explanation of the model.

Racing Toward Perfection

A week ago, there were two Division I college basketball teams that had yet to suffer defeat: Syracuse and Murray State. Had you been asked which one was more likely to finish the regular season with a zero in the loss column, the answer should have been pretty obvious given the quality of their conference foes: Murray State.

You would have been proven correct by Saturday, when Syracuse lost on the road to Notre Dame, a team whose offensive mediocrity is matched only by that of its football team. But it was a road game. And it was a road game in one of the Big Six conferences. And any college basketball fan who thinks a team can navigate the gauntlet of league play away from home with nary a smudge should surrender their fan card and resume watching “Teen Mom” on MTV or something similarly awful.

In fact, a cursory glance at the Orange’s schedule should have raised a few red flags going into that trip to South Bend. Of their 20 outings prior to last Saturday, only four were true road games. None were what you would call stiff tests: N.C. State, DePaul, Providence and Villanova. With a remaining schedule featuring five games against ranked teams, including three away from home, Syracuse wasn’t likely to get to Madison Square Garden for the Big East Tournament with perfection intact.

In fact, the now-one-loss Orange aren’t likely to reach the Big Apple without that “one” becoming … well, more than one.

Syracuse’s Remaining Schedule

And then there’s Murray State of the Ohio Valley Conference, which you’ll be decidedly unshocked to learn isn’t quite as competitive as the Big East. One way to illustrate that is to examine the number of teams in the league that have a cardinal direction leading off their name or the words “Tech” or “State” ending it: OVC 8 (and one team has both, thank you Southeast Missouri State), Big East 2.

Another way to illustrate that—and one slightly more befitting this space—is to examine the Racers’ odds of making a flawless sojourn to their conference tournament.

Murray State’s Remaining Schedule

Of course, that number is going to take a monstrous hit in about a week, when the matchups for ESPN’s annual BracketBuster are announced. Many projections have Murray State hosting St. Mary’s, which has lost only twice this season and thus brings to the table a slightly better pedigree than the remainder of the OVC.

But with the next five games overwhelmingly favoring them, the Racers can spend less time worrying about where their first loss is coming from and more time watching whatever segment of the population MTV hasn’t yet exploited for ratings. I think we’re down to octogenarian dairy farmers and trust-fund toddlers.

Our Game of the Week

Indiana (MCBR #17, AP #16) at Wisconsin (MCBR #8, AP #25)

8 p.m. (Central Time) Thursday, Jan. 26

Kohl Center, Madison, WI

Little-known fact of the week: The phrase “study in contrasts” was first coined by the editorial board of the New York Tribune during the 1912 presidential election between exercise enthusiast Woodrow Wilson and rotundasaurus William Howard Taft. But it also applies to our featured game, which couldn’t involve more different teams unless one of them suddenly decided to play squash instead.

The visiting Hoosiers (16-4, 4-4 Big Ten) bring the nation’s 16th-ranked offense to Madison, while the Badgers (16-5, 5-3) are 231st. No team allows fewer points, holds opponents to a lower field-goal percentage or turns the ball over less than Wisconsin, while Indiana is 122nd in scoring defense, 109th in FG percentage defense and 136th in turnovers per game.

More important than the statistical rankings are the opposite trajectories the teams have been on lately. The Hoosiers won 15 of their first 16 games, only to drop the next three. Meanwhile, the Badgers lost three of their first four conference games but are in the midst of a four-game winning streak that includes road wins against Purdue and Illinois. And considering its overwhelming advantage at the Kohl Center, we’re predicting Wisconsin will make it five straight, 65-57.