Rankings Through January 30, 2012 & Blog Post
Tuesday, January 31, 2012 at 5:52AM Click here for full rankings.
Click here for an explanation of the model.
The Great Debate
Sports exist purely so people can argue. And for physical fitness. But mostly for arguing. My team is better than your team. This player is superior to that player. Ndamukong Suh is a dirty player and a liar. There’s only one side to that one, at least among sane people.
But the chicken-and-egg argument of the sports world has always been offense vs. defense. In the realm of college basketball, that debate involves two camps:
- Those who enjoy watching games played at a breakneck pace by fleet-footed athletes hurtling themselves at the basket with wild abandon.
- Wisconsin fans.
The poster boys for throwback basketball are also the scapegoats for every individual who consider shot-clock violations to be mythical events and Norman Dale’s five-pass requirement to be blasphemy. But grinding down the pace of the game has been the key to the Badgers’ success, including an active streak of 13 NCAA tournament appearances.
By bringing the game to a near screeching halt, the Badgers allow themselves time to get into their half-court defense. And due in large part to that this Fort Knoxian defense, this year finds Wisconsin in its usual place among the best defensive teams in the country, along with such perennial powers as Kentucky, Louisville, Kansas and Connecticut.
But that doesn’t mean we’re ready to declare a victor in the offense-defense deliberation. In fact, based on our numbers, it seems as though the teams with the ability to get their opponent on lock can’t turn that skill into success. At least not as often as we would expect them to.
Granted, the difference between these teams’ expected winning percentages and their actual results, save Wisconsin, is more of a crack in the sidewalk than a chasm, but it’s there. Compare that with the nation’s top offensive teams—a list that, admittedly, has an early strike against it based on its less-than-impressive pedigree.
While the name recognition is lacking, the results aren’t. Unless you measure success by Misix rank. In that case, we have a tie to break. And while our preferred way to settle these matters is an illegal cross-country car race featuring Dom DeLuise and Jamie Farr, it’s more fitting our M.O.—and less time-consuming—to do something with numbers.
So using a statistical regression model we are able to calculate the biggest influences on a team’s estimated winning percentage. Here they are in order of importance:
There you have it. Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage is the strongest driver of a team’s estimated winning percentage. Case closed. Next week, we’ll tackle science vs. religion and Edward vs. Jacob.
Our Game of the Week
Kansas (MCBR #5, AP #8) at Missouri (MCBR #9, AP #4)
8 p.m. (Central Time) Saturday, Feb. 4
Mizzou Arena, Columbia, MO
This week’s featured game almost makes it look like we actually plan these posts in advance. Scroll up and take another gander at those tables, and you’ll see we have the fourth most efficient offense in the country matching up with the 10th-ranked defense. And while the outcome of this game won’t definitively settle the offense vs. defense debate any more than our calculations, it may be the initial step toward deciding the Big 12’s regular-season champion.
With just one league loss to its name, Kansas (17-4, 7-1 Big 12) could put two games between itself and Missouri (20-2, 7-2 Big 12) and then strike another huge blow four nights later by knocking off the conference’s only other two-loss team, Baylor.
But if the Jayhawks are going to pull off that twin killing, their top two scorers are going to need to take a much bigger liking to hotel sheets and tiny shampoo bottles. Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor have seen their scoring averages dip by 3.5 and 3 points, respectively, away from home, while their field-goal percentages each drop by more than five points.
Meanwhile, Missouri averages 76 points per game at home in conference play and gives up a little less than 56 per game. Little wonder that the only thing more difficult than beating the Tigers in their own backyard is figuring out how, after months of marketing meetings and focus groups, the best name they could come up with for their home court was “Mizzou Arena.”
Despite the yawn-inducing moniker, Missouri is undefeated on its home court for a reason, and we’re predicting that will still be the case after a 74-69 win over the Jayhawks.
Reader Comments (1)
No love for my homeland of Northern Colorado?