Monday
Sep192011
A World Without Cages – A Statistical Analysis of Nicolas Cage
Monday, September 19, 2011 at 10:03AM
There have been some very entertaining movies released over the last couple of months. The last Harry Potter installment, Captain America, The Hangover Part II and The Help have done quite well at the box office, and viewer and critic ratings have been fairly positive.
Do you know what these popular, successful movies have in common? Nicolas Cage is not in any of them. This may sound harsh or unfair to Mr. Cage and that we just don’t like his work. However, we’re analysts by trade, so we have statistical evidence to support this hypothesis.
The $22 Million Anchor
No, that’s not the title of the latest big-budget summer flick coming out of Hollywood, although it does have a nice ring to it. Using our advanced knowledge of statistical models (We can just imagine how proud our professors are of us), we decided to answer a question that the world needs answered. Is Nicolas Cage a below-average actor, or is it just us?
Statistically speaking, it isn’t just us.
Taking into account the following factors, we were able to isolate what the Cageian Impact is on the Total Gross Revenue of a movie where he is featured:
- Genre
- Days in the theater
- Whether or not the movie is released around a holiday
- Production budget of the movie
- Critic ratings
- Viewer ratings
We found that when you account for all characteristics listed above - and Cage lends his skills to a production, it will reduce the total gross revenue of the movie by an average of $22,865,304. Statistically speaking, Nicolas Cage is a $22 million anchor for a movie.
The Critics Have Spoken
You may be thinking, “Just because his movies are not bringing in as much money as other movies, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a horrible actor.” True. So let’s get the critic’s professional opinion and see what they think about Mr. Cage.
By profession, critics are supposed to have a fine-tuned palette when it comes to movies. They are the supposed experts when judging quality. Well, it appears that the critics feel strongly about Mr. Cage’s films as well. Taking into account the following, we are able to isolate the Cageian Impact on a movie’s critic ratings:
- Genre
- Days in the theater
- Whether or not the movie is released around a holiday
- Production Budget of the movie
On average, a Nicolas Cage movie will be 8.37 points lower than if he weren’t in it at all.
Still Working
If Nicolas Cage single-handedly loses money at the box office and the critics don’t appear to be fans of his skills, how does he still get acting roles? Blame it on the average movie going public – you and me. Using a third statistical model taking into account the following factors, we can see what the Cageian Impact is on a movie’s general viewer ratings:
- Genre
- Days in the theater
- Whether or not the movie is released around a holiday
- Production Budget of the movie
- Critic Ratings
On average, the general viewing public’s rating of the movie remains statistically unchanged when he’s in the picture. The critics think he’s a bad actor (statistically speaking) and he drains movie revenues, but the public seems to be neutral about him.
Looking at the arguments we’ve just outlined, one could argue that Mr. Cage isn’t a bad actor just because he costs a movie a substantial amount of revenue. Critics generally don’t speak for the average movie going public, so just because they don’t appear to like him doesn’t mean he’s a bad actor. In fact, the average movie viewer thinks he is an average actor by having a neutral feeling toward his movies. Plus, Raising Arizona was a good movie.
To the person that makes this very valid argument we present the following 19 counter arguments:
*All the movie data came from BoxOfficeMojo.com, except for the viewer and critic rating data which came from IMDB.
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Reader Comments (2)
Nicolas Cage is the Brando of our generation. The fact that you could think otherwise is disturbing. You must not enjoy movies
That comment is spot on!!! Cage 4 Life!!!